Posted By oomphhq on January 23rd, 2010

mogeneration 2009 iPhone predictions revisited

On January 1 2009 mogeneration published iPhone predictions for the year 2009.  This blog post revisits those predictions to see how we did.

Hindsight is 20/20 and most of these seem obvious now. mogeneration did pretty well by getting  5 and a half out of 7 correct.

App Store subscription payment model
Correct – This became available in iPhone OS 3.0

Push notifications finally arrive
Correct – This became available in iPhone OS 3.0

Smaller iPhone arrives, possibly called the iPhone Nano
Incorrect – the iPhone 3GS retained the form factor of the iPhone 3G.

Carrier restrictions removed on new iPhones
Partially correct – Australia is unusual in that all carriers carried the iPhone. This was obviously a test by Apple, and the results have been astounding: 95% of smartphone traffic in Australia is from iPhone (source Admob Dec 2009 Report).  iPhones also became available on multiple carriers in France for legal reasons.  The UK and Italy followed.  Following the end of AT&T’s US exclusivity this year it is likely Apple will no longer do carrier exclusives – especially in light of the unbelievable success of the app store.

iPhone demographic broadens
Correct – mogeneration’s own analytics show a broad acceptance of the iPhone. For example users of Food Watch app are spread evenly across the 18-25, 25-35, and 35-45 age groups with 25%  uptake in each.  The remaining 25% are across the remaining age ranges.  The iPhone appeals to 18-25 for the music, internet and stylistic reasons, the 25-35 for its music and smart phone features and 34-45 for it is intuitive OS, email and large easier to read screen.

Larger capacity iPhones
Correct – The largest capacity iPhone 3GS doubled in size to 32G, the iPod Touch to 64G.

App Store Genius recommends apps based on your iPhone usage and profile
Correct – Apple made this available in order to help with app discovery.